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Trends represent the day-to-day rate of new cases with a focus on the most recent 10 to 14 days.
On March 10, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center ceased its collecting and reporting of global COVID-19 data. For updated cases, deaths, and vaccine data please visit: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
0 (-0) with Emergent trend and fewer than ten cases 1,135 (+51)with Spreading trend 1,664 (-63) with Epidemic trend 230 (+10) with Controlled trend 110 (+2) with End Stage trend
- Notes: Many states only report once per week, and some only once every two weeks. On 3/7/2022 we adjusted the formula for active cases to reflect the Omicron Variants which is documented to cause lower rates of serious and severe illness.
See our weekly summary map containing a history of each county's trend changes, a histogram of weekly cases, and the most recent trend direction attributes.
Knowing where to look next is important. Counties with zero new cases over the past fourteen or more days have accomplished an important milestone, and may no longer have any active cases.
Click a county to verify reliability of individual county trends - if greater than 7 days, the trend may be unreliable.
- Note, several states now only report once per week..
The larger diamonds show the recent outbreaks and the color indicates the county population.
We know that high population density increases risk for transmission of COVID-19. However, epidemics in rural settings also carry high impact. Rural settings have risks for economic fragility, greater distance to healthcare providers, strong social cultures that are less likely to isolate, andthose with underlying health risk factors are more likely to have multiple risk factors.
Active cases provide an estimate of the number of people who can spread COVID-19.
The estimate is calculated as:
AC = RC + SC + CC
Where:
AC = Active Cases
RC = Recent Cases: 100% of cases in past 14 days
SC = Severe Cases: 19% of cases in past 15-25 days
CC = Critical Cases: 5% of cases in past 31-56 days
On 3/7/2022 we adjusted the formula for active cases to reflect the Omicron Variant which is documented to cause lower rates of serious and severe illness. These changes will be retained while the Omicron variant is dominant in the U.S.:
RC = Recent Cases: 100% of cases in past 14 days
SC = Severe Cases: 6% of cases in past 15-25 days
CC = Critical Cases: 3% of cases in past 31-56 days
We need to estimate because the data for confirmed recoveries is incomplete and privacy laws ensure that it will not be complete.
It is important to know where high or low levels of mortality are occurring and whether it is recent. When the trend is epidemic or spreading, the mortality is most likely recent.
This shows where COVID-19 has had the most impact. Deaths per 100,000 cannot go down.
Compare this map to Deaths as % of Total Cases. Why are they so different? Neither map is explanatory. While both maps put this topic into spatial context, they do not show how long each county has had cases or the demographic qualities of the population, such as age or health risks.
The darker the color*, the more cases have been occurring in the past 14 days. The range of values in the legend represents 20 at the lowest, which is roughly the level that policies were instituted for social distancing, mask wearing, etc.
A level of 2,000 is 2% of the population, and several states have come close to this level, which generally represents a danger to overwhelming local healthcare resources.
Click on a state to get a summary of how its counties are faring . The popup includes state totals and current status.
*Increased upper limit of range in legend from 200 to 1,000 on 8/9/21.
